gambler’s fallacy

The coin does not remember. It is not due.

Wrong: “Black’s come up six times, red is due.”

Right: “It’s still an even chance.”

The wheel has no record of the last six spins.

Genuinely independent events are unaffected by history. The intuition that things “even out” comes from the law of large numbers, which says averages converge over enormous samples—not that the next event compensates for the last one.

The legitimate version: if events aren’t independent—cards dealt from a shrinking deck, a machine wearing out—then history absolutely matters. Establishing independence is the whole question.

Now go leave the table.